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Multi cash out: pull the trigger or let it ride?
Multi cash out: pull the trigger or let it ride?
Champion Bets |  Dec 16, 2022
The early “multi cash out” feature has made its way across most of the major bookmakers.
In fact, you can even cash out on many single bets now. I don’t know why you’d want to, but your friendly bookmaker will give you the option: with another clip of the ticket, of course!

The main thing to remember with most bookmaker gimmicks is that they’re generally aimed at the punters with whom they most want to engage: the mugs. The casual punter who doesn’t know (or probably care) about the concept of long-term value.

As a more serious punter, you should be looking at a consistent approach which, over time, will produce the most value. As you’re taking a long-term view, the wins and losses (variance) will even out and you’ll be better off.

Multi cash out: example
Four leg multis on soccer are very popular due to the number of “3 out of 4” offers around. We’ll assume we’ve already nailed our first three legs and have a cash-out offer prior to the last.

Bet: four-leg multi, $100 stake, price $7.30

Situation: 3/3 winners, alive into last leg (Crystal Palace to defeat Wolves)

Last leg: Crystal Palace $1.60, Draw $4.50, Wolves $5.00

Cash-out offer: $440

So your options are as follows:

Option 1, cash out: $440 collect, $340 profit

Option 2, let it ride: win ($730 collect, $630 profit) or lose (zero collect)

Multi cash out: the value equation
We know that the bookies rate Crystal Palace a $1.60 chance, which equates to a 62.5% chance of winning (1 / 1.6). We’ll use 60% to allow for the bookies margin. So in mathematical terms, and at the bookie’s ratings, your real choice is between $340 cash (option 1), or a 60% chance of $630: $378 (option 2).

There you can see the value the bookies generate when punters elect to cash out. A totally ‘fair’ cash out offer at their own odds would be $378. They may have dozens of punters with the same offer: the more that take up the lower $340 amount, the better off they’ll be in a mathematical sense.

The value bet is clearly to let it ride. As always, the key to value is in the long-term: in that if you were presented with this exact situation many times over, ‘letting it ride’ is clearly the most profitable option.

If you use this calculation each time you’re considering a ‘cash out’ offer from a bookie, you’ll see the value you’re getting (or more accurately, losing) each time.

Multi cash out: rated prices
That’s fairly straightforward, however things change if your own ratings are more accurate than the bookmaker’s (which they need to be, if you are to be a successful punter). For example, you may assess Crystal Palace’s true odds as $1.45, with the associated adjustments to the odds for the draw or the Bournemouth win. That’ll obviously change the figures and allow you to assess you own true value, rather than the bookmaker’s.

Multi cash out: racing
Nick Aubrey is a former actuary who takes an extremely mathematical approach to his punting. We’ve spoken to him before on the Betting 360 Podcast.

The basic concept of the ‘cash out’ is the same with a racing quaddie as a sports multi, except in a horse race, there’s usually far more outcomes (potential winners).

“My overriding rule is that it’s all about the price,” Nick explains.

“If you think the cash-out amount is better than your expected return (your estimated chance of collect, multiplied by your full payout) then cash out.

“If the last leg is a race field (eg quaddie), then cashing out is equivalent to having a field bet on the last leg.

“So you are betting on every runner, some of which you would never want to back.

“In this circumstance, a hedge (side) bet on those runners which you haven’t taken in your original bet BUT you think have got a chance would be a better strategy.

“The hedge bet(s) could just be to cover your total outlay so that you are profit neutral on these runners, but still can win big on your original bets.”
Other Posts
10 tips on how to avoid bookmaker bans
Mark Haywood |  Nov 6, 2024
The scourge of the modern punter… bookmaker bans.
Minimum Bet Limits have been a godsend for racing punters but in most other markets it’s still a battle to avoid bookmaker bans. Unfortunately, in this day and age many bookies only want punters who lose at a significant rate. 

While traditional bookmaking was all about managing the book and maintaining the percentage, the move to online has meant wagering operators have a huge bank of data with which to profile punters. This allows the bookmakers to weed out those who take their money, and target those who don’t.

Minimum Bet Limits

Many Australian racing bodies have minimum bet limits in place. These compel wagering operators to take a bet from all punters, at the advertised odds, to win any amount up to the limit. Failure to do so is a breach of race fields agreements that the wagering operators have with the racing bodies.

Check out our Minimum Bet Limits page to see all the MBLs that are in place across thoroughbred, harness and greyhound racing in Australia.

10 tips on how to avoid bookmaker bans

For racing that's not covered by minimum bet limits, or for sport anywhere, the battle to avoid bookmaker bans or tiny limits continues. We’ve gathered the best pieces of advice from a number of people around the industry: from those who’ve worked for wagering operators to those who punt for a living, and some who’ve done both.

First things first: all agreed that if you’re a successful, profitable customer, it’s almost inevitable that you’ll cop bookmaker bans at some stage. 

However, there are a number of things you can do that may well significantly delay that.

1. Start slowly
New accounts are likely to go under the microscope. The wagering operator will naturally be wary of somebody they have no knowledge of.

Depositing ten of thousands of dollars straight up and betting $500 per bet immediately is a sure-fire way to attract attention. If you’re a loser, expect a new best friend. If you have half a clue what you’re doing however, you’ll get the wrong kind of attention.

It’s worth going light with the stakes on any new account you have. It’ll give the wagering operator some comfort that the new guy is just a regular mug, and they’ll move on to somebody else. For now.

2. Don’t bet too big
It’s simple maths – placing large stakes will automatically get you flagged as a bigger potential risk.

If you’re going to stake over $100, you should start to consider splitting up your bets. The smaller your stakes, the better.

If you have the same price across multiple wagering operators – which is extremely common these days – take an extra few seconds and split your stake across them. It’s a bit of extra work that can really pay off.

3. Don’t win too big
It also goes without saying that big, single collects will quickly raise the attention of the profit police.

Avoid this – if you’re betting to collect four figures on any one bet, split it up across a few wagering operators.

For rules 1 & 2, it’s also worth remembering that the world of wagering operators is a hive of corporate merger and acquisition activity. This means that even if you think you’re dealing with two separate companies, one may have bought out the other at some stage and be controlling it!

4. Time your run
Timing is crucial. Everybody tries to read the market and capture the best price possible, but it stands to reason that the earlier you bet, the more time the wagering market has to adjust and balance things out.

Obviously we all bet late at times, but having large, winning bets consistently in the last few minutes will annoy the bookmaker as it hampers their ability to lay off. It's a complex situation because if you bet too early and consistently beat the closing line you'll be profiled as sharp!

There are three main factors to consider regarding when to bet.

5. Be wary of obscure bets
Again, it’s much easier for wagering operators to look after all punters when they can balance their risk. And it’s far easier for them to do that on popular, high liquidity events due to the flood of money coming in.

So try to avoid excessive betting on obscure events. Even if you’re lucky enough to get your bets accepted on that Division 2 Slovakian handball match, you can be sure it’ll raise a red flag against your account.

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Think. Is this a bet you really want to have?
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6. Diversify!
It’s the catch-cry of investors everywhere, and it also applies here. Betting strictly on one sport, or one racing jurisdiction (again, particularly if you’re winning) screams that you’re a specialist. Wagering operators hate specialists because they're more likely to know their stuff.

Make sure each one of your accounts gets a share of action across multiple sports and events.

7. Punt like a pickle
Mug punters are obviously the most profitable for wagering operators. If your betting makes you look like a recreational punter you’ll get more rein from the wagering operators.

Almost all of these rules are aimed in some way at making you look like a pickle. But there’s a few specific bet types you can use in combination with them, and make the illusion greater:

  • Multis: noticed how much wagering operators advertise multis? They LOVE them. Generally, punters massively misunderstand the true value behind multis and they load up on bets that have very little hope of saluting. Get involved in this… place a few hail mary multis.
  • Major seasonal events: if you’re looking to diversify your account across multiple sports, then pay attention to what’s in the news. All sports have their peak periods when action is at its highest, and plenty more mugs may throw a bet on because it’s the one time of the year they’re watching that sport. Do you never bet on NRL? Put on a bet on Origin night. AFL? Have a go on the grand final. For the sports you don’t usually bet on, place some bets during events like the Australian Open tennis, the Australian F1 Grand Prix, the Melbourne Cup, the NBA Finals, high-profile boxing bouts and the Super Bowl.

8. Lay off your pickle action
What’s the point of being a winner if you have to balance it out with losing bets to keep betting?

Good question.

But it doesn’t have to be that way. Having a ‘pickle bet’? Lay it off on Betfair and massively reduce your liability no matter what the outcome. Better yet, where possible you can kill two birds with one stone and bet the other side with another wagering operator. It’ll still cost you a little bit, but not a massive amount… and to both the wagering operators, it just looks like a normal mug bet.

9. Bet where they don’t ban!
While it’s not possible for every sport or bet type, there are places to bet where there’s no danger of being banned.

The most obvious is Betfair. Betting exchanges don’t take bets: they simply match money between punters on either side of the equation. From there they just take a percentage commission from the winnings – so it’s not in their business model to stop people betting: their motivation is for people to bet more.

Whilst “just use Betfair!” sounds like stupidly simple advice, the benefits are really there for those who put in the work. Jumping onto the exchange and just taking what’s available may not necessarily be too beneficial. But learning how to properly observe the market, and when to bet to take get the best price, can lead to returns far beyond what any traditional bookmaker can deliver anyway.

As far as corporate bookmakers go, Aussie-owned TopSport are the operator with by far the best reputation for taking a bet (and continuing to do so). Use them where you can. They have limits like all bookmakers, but they’re higher and they don’t “play heads” and ban winners.

10. Put in the work
As you can see, like all things punting, the rewards belong to those who put in the work.
A bit of extra time taken on each bet can definitely help you delay or avoid bookmaker bans.

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If you'd like that hard work done for you make sure to check out our Premium membership options across both racing and sports....
Bonus bets: don’t waste them on short-priced favourites
Rod |  Nov 5, 2024
The bigger the better for bonus bets? Rod investigates:
There’s a lot of bookies in the Australian market and they’re all competing for your betting dollar.

And one of the ways they try to win that battle is by offering money back and bonus bet promotions.

So what’s the best way to use a bonus bet?

In theory, the longer the odds you spend your bonus bets on, the better the long-term return. It’s all to do with the fact that if your bonus bet wins, you don’t get the stake back… just the profit.

For example, if you had a $100 bonus bet on a $4 chance and it won, you would return $300 (not the usual $400 you would with a real money bet).

Bonus bets on even-money chances

With this knowledge in hand, let’s say you had 10 x $100 bonus bets and every bet was on a $2 chance. Each time you win, you collect $100 (i.e. the profit, not the stake).

You would expect 5 out of 10 (50%) winners on average* at that price, so you will collect 5 x $100 = $500. Therefore, for each $100 bonus bet @ $2 you would expect in the long-term to win $500/10 = $50.

*to keep it simple we will ignore the bookies/tote market percentage, which means that horses at $2 will in fact win slightly less than 50% of races.

Bonus bets at odds of $5

Now let’s say you had 10 x $100 bonus bets @ odds of $5. On average, you’d expect 2 out of 10 (20%) will win. Each winner will return $400, so you will collect $800 overall. On average, for each $100 bonus bet @ $5 you would expect to win $800/10 = $80.

Bonus bets at odds of $10

10 x $100 bonus bets @ $10. 1 out of 10 win and that winner will earn you $900. 10 x $100 bonus bets @ $10 = $900/10 = $90.

You can see the pattern:

Odds   Expected return @ $100 bonus bet
$2      $50
$5      $80
$10     $90

So the simple (albeit surprising for some) rule is that the longer the price, the better the long-term return on your bonus bets. Which means in theory that every bonus bet should be on 100-1 shots, right?

Bonus bets on longshots?
Wrong, actually. And the problem is obvious – they do not win very often. Even if a 100-1 shot was a genuine 1 in a 100 chance (which in fact they are not due to the favourite-longshot bias), we would have to wait a long time to collect any winnings from our bonus bets. So in the real word of betting you don’t want to go too long between collects, even with bonus bets.

Most bookies also have a rule that you need to turn over winnings from bonus bets at least once before you can withdraw the winnings. That is a problem if you get a big winner on a bonus bet. If for example, you placed a $100 bonus bet on a 20-1 shot and it won, you would collect $1900 (great) but you would need to turn over another $1900 worth of bets before you could withdraw it. It takes much less effort to turnover a few hundred dollars on a $5 winner.

So taking all of that into account you want to find the sweet spot between price and strike-rate when playing a bonus bet. It’s not a hard-and-fast rule by any means, but focusing on odds around the $5 to $6 mark is a good balance and if anything, lean on the longer side (past $6). You’ll need to wait a little longer for your collects, but that’s okay because they’re free bets anyway and you have the confidence of knowing the maths are in your favour.

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Think. Is this a bet you really want to have?
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Live racing broadcast delays: Are you at a disadvantage?
Mark Haywood |  Dec 13, 2022
In case you missed it, there’s been a bit of controversy in the UK regarding dedicated punters employing their own drones to track horse races live.
The drones offer video feeds that are effectively instantaneous, giving some punters a few seconds advantage over the official race coverage (as well as a useful bird’s eye view).

For those betting in the run, this is crucial: at the click of a button they can take their position on the exchange before most others have even seen a mid-race move or incident take place.

Some savvy drone operators are reportedly selling their vision feeds to keen in-the-run punters, who are willing to pay big money for the advantage it offers. Despite complaints from broadcasters, authorities are a little unsure of what they’re able to do about it – if anything – given the drones are often flown from private land.

Britain’s Racecourse Association said: “Whilst frustrating, if the operator is not breaking the law there is limited further action that can be taken at this time.”

Broadcast delays are a technological reality. They’ve always been there and probably always will be in some form – as well as technological reasons, broadcasters often build them in for censorship reasons.

So how does racing in Australia compare, and what do you need if you’re serious about betting in the run?

We did a little bit of testing to see.

While our use of a simple stopwatch isn’t the most advanced of testing equipment, it gives a good idea of the types of delays experienced. We used the same 4G wireless connection for testing all online sources and took a few measurements to ensure there weren’t any one-off technological factors at play.

So What Did We Find?
We checked out the on-course vision at Caulfield during last Saturday’s racing. This live feed is shown on the main big screen on the infield, as well as other screens throughout the racecourse.

Watching the race finishes trackside at the winning post, the vision is as close to absolutely “live” as you could get. If there’s any delay at all, it’s completely negligible. Though of course, this could vary by racecourse.

Handily for our purposes, there’s also plenty of screens at Caulfield showing Sky Racing right next to the on-course vision. We tested these a few times and the gap we found was consistent: 5.3 seconds.

To follow this up and get a better idea for TV, we later looked at Sky Racing via Foxtel (satellite) versus two other sources: Racing.com on Foxtel (channel 529), and Racing.com on free-to-air TV (channel 78). The difference between the three was barely noticeable – maybe a tenth of a second here or there. So we’re fairly confident all television channels are basically the same.

From there, we could test a range of online sources for race vision – desktop and mobile apps for Sky Racing, Racing.com, Racing NSW, TAB and BetEasy. Some slight differences aside, they were all fairly consistent – around 8 – 9 seconds behind the TV broadcast, which generally puts them 13 – 14 seconds behind the live vision.
Obviously, that’s a concern if you’re betting in the run, but also if you like to get on at the very last second behind the jump.

So the lesson? It’s fairly obvious… if you need to be right on the ball, you have to be at the track. Additionally, the growing use of online sources means some fairly lengthy delays at this stage. Hopefully streaming infrastructure and technology improves.
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